Hubbert's Peak - The Impending World Oil shortage

I recently finished reading the above mentioned book written by Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Hubbert's Peak is a well known term which has existed in the industry for a few years, and a neophyte like me is only being introduced to it now. The absorbing book left me shocked and definitely much more aware of the energy problems facing our future generations.

M. King Hubbert a member of US Geological Survey (USGS) and an ex-employee of Shell Research Lab, made a rather prophetical and bold declaration in 1956, that the US oil production will hit its peak in early 1970, and the world oil production will hit its peak in this decade. His prediction came true when the US oil production peaked in 1970. A lot of mathematicians have followed on Hubbert's lead, and now predict the peak of World oil consumption to be around 2010. Hubbert's theory in its entirety has now been globally accepted, with very few criticism, and the only debate now is regarding the exact date of the peak.

A simple explanation of the mathematical derivation by Hubbert can be found here. The basic assumption underlying the math, is that most of the large oil reserves of the world have been discovered. Although, I still have tough time believing it, it can be easily proven, basis the geological mapping done by USGS and various other surveys. Infact 80% of today's oil still come from fields discovered before 1970. Once you agree that oil reserves are finite - 3 trillion barrels by the most optimistic estimate, it is just a matter of predicting the rate of production based on the demand. This is precisely what was done by Hubbert, using a gaussian curve initially and then correcting it with other fits.

So what does this mean? It only means that, soon, the world oil demand will exceed the production, and the invisible hands of economics will automatically cause oil price increases to maintain equilibrium. With energy starved countries like India & China only joining the race, the demand is set to sky-rocket, and in absence of viable alternative resources, the oil prices will definitely hit the roof soon.

I have always been a believer of technology overcoming human necessities to maintain things at equilibrium. I even believed that exhaustible natural resources will eventually be substituted by comparable human discovered/invented substitutes. However, given the current over dependence on oil at the rate of amortization of fossil fuels, it would take a discovery of epic proportions to overcome the impeding crisis.

The most effective ways to conserve and impact changes is through legislation by the government. However, at most times, politicians pandering to their electorate, negates the possibility of this occurring. This would then need to be overcome by induvialistic actions taken by progressive citizens. To take an example from the book, aluminum cost $200 per ton, but that is only $3 for aluminum ore and a whooping $197 for electricity, which is largley produced by non-renewable sources. A simple act like recycling, can make big inroads into the conserving electricity and prolonging the life of nonrenewable sources! Think people....think !!!